The Disciplined Speculator Vol 1
We do not adhere to any single philosophy or method; we simply try to quantify what actually works in the stock market based on our extensive backtesting and reputable academic research. Our research shows that on average nearly 90% of an individual stock’s movement is determined by country and sector movements, while the other 10% is due to company specific factors. We have also found that using simple mechanical rules are the most effective at predicting new and important trends. You do not need to waste time doing complicated fundamental analysis. Even worse do not listen to market strategists or economists to forecast the future trends. The market already reflects most of the available information that you are likely to hear about. It is more important to understand where the money is flowing and how optimistic or pessimistic the big money is about a particular country or sector. This can be measured quantitatively by identifying momentum, valuation, and sentiment. Our investment process is to identify first how to predict country and sector trends and then narrow down to focus on individual industries and then individual companies.

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