Hello all. A very interesting day today.......the fed leaves rates unchanged and the market goes up 300 points. The fed talks about worrying about inflation risks and commodities drop like a stone as if somehow tough talk will fix the problem. Indeed, as i indicated yesterday, commodities are in a correction and oil has just begun its second leg down. However, the commercials (the insiders) are buying up all commodities across the board as fast as the hedge funds are selling them. There is also significant buying by the commercials in foreign currencies (some of the most we have seen in a year)----while the hedge funds and speculators have bet on the US dollar for the last two months, the central banks have used this opportunity to unload the beleaguered US dollar to "Johnny come latelies." Meanwhile bankrupt financials continue to rally, and many pundits believe---for the 3rd time they have said this----that the credit crisis is over. Heck even Cramer thinks the credit crisis is over-----it will be funny to watch him look like a fool on national television. Obviously we are just at the tip of the iceberg in my opinion, and when the death spiral created by a consumer recession starts taking hold, the recent market dip will look like a wading pool compared to ocean we are about to dive into. However, I am a technofundamentalist, and therefore, while i believe fundamentals are important, technicals--or market action--must confirm direction. Given the divergent behavior between technicals and fundamentals, I believe we are in a period where nothing makes any logical sense, and as a consequence its best to stay mostly on the sidelines until everything lines up once again. If you missed my previous email yesterday to sell Yamana and XTO that you would be best advised to follow through tommorow. Yamana was a disaster, but if you set the stop at 12.00 as i indicated you would be sitting on a 9% loss. Same goes for XTO. Losses are just a part of the game, and no one is accur ate more than 65% of the time over several hundred trades. Still hold STJ which rallied 2.7% today on good volume. Other than that, shorting oil is fine, but will require fast reflexes to execute successfully-----stay away for now. stay tuned for my intermediate and long term market timing analysis coming tonight or tommorow.