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- The Key Traits of the Most Successful Traders
- Financial Armageddon?
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Financial Armageddon?
Just in case you have been stranded on an island these last few days, I would like to take a moment to review the cataclysmic events that have happened in our financial system. Lehman Brothers, one of the big investment banks, officially became the largest bankruptcy in US history. The shockwaves sent the global markets down nearly 5% on Monday, as the financial system feared losses in the tens of billions. Lehman dropped 95% in one day. To make things more interesting, AIG- the world’s largest insurance company- also revealed on Monday that it was on the brink of total collapse. AIG dropped nearly 60% in one day. Bank of America made an unusual bid for Merrill Lynch that was a 70% premium to the closing price. The only logical explanation was that it was a shotgun wedding arranged by Paulson and co. during the weekend to instill confidence in the value of other financial companies. On Monday night after the market carnage, it became widely known that AIG would required at least 40 billion dollars in the short-term to stay afloat. Today AIG shares were down as much as 75% before closing down 20%, although as I write this AIG is down 30% after hours. The interbank rate doubled today, reflecting the largest jump since 2007, and a deep freeze in the credit markets. Banks simply will not lend to each other even despite their dire need for liquidity. Today the Fed decided to stand pat on interest rates, and the market rallied, perhaps because the absence of a rate cut signalled confidence that things will settle down.
Analysis
The government has been under fire for nationalizing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac which will cost taxpayers a large amount of money, and double the national debt. To counter this criticism they decided to make an example out of Lehman Brothers and let it fail to prevent the markets from believing that every bank will be bailed out. Lehman was not as connected to the financial system in the form of swaps and other derivatives as Bear Stearns as most of their bad assets were in the form of bad mortgage-backed securities. The Fed decided that the system could handle the impact of their collapse, although the fallout would still be severe. In contrast AIG is large and heavily interconnected with the financial system. AIG guarantees insurance policies on hundreds of different financial instruments with the most critical being default insurance on deals between two financial parties. It is estimated that AIG could cost the system as much as 200-400 billion dollars if it were to be allowed to fail. Personally I think that this is a lowball estimate. Essentially if AIG fails, the financial system will have to endure a new series of writedowns equivalent to or exceeding the subprime losses. This would of course be catastrophic, and would continue to exacerbate the deadly dominoe effect of bankruptcies within the system. At this rate, the financial system as we know it will completely change. Investment banks will disappear and become absorbed into the larger commercial banks. The environment will be more similar to the Canadian banking system with a handful of large banks that also engage in traditional investment banking activities. The environment will be less competitive and the banks will be more conservative. Regulators will severely curtail the use of derivatives and other complicated financing schemes. Proprietary trading will largely disappear, and most of this type of trading will be replaced by the growing hedge fund industry. For consumers, borrowing will be extremely difficult, and banking and advisory fees will go up for both individuals and corporations. When the dust settles, the financial system will have shrunk to a small fraction of its former size, and the average salary will decline drastically.
The Key Traits of the Most Successful Traders
As an individual investor that looks to invest in stocks, you are better off learning from the most successful traders of all time than from the legends of the mutual fund world. Studies show that the average investor in stocks does a considerable amount of trading, and the turnover of their brokerage accounts is not indicative of a buy and hold approach. Furthermore, the average investor holds less than 10 stocks. So if this describes your approach, why are you listening to portfolio managers that have average holding periods of 3 years or more, and hold over one hundred stocks?
Being a successful long term investor depends on having superior knowledge than the crowd and excellent judgment in putting all the facts together. The fact is most of us mere mortals and prone to making errors in judgment. But the good news is that you don’t have to be a long term investor in order to succeed. In fact, you have a huge advantage over conventional mutual funds if you are a trader with an arsenal of the appropriate weapons.
You can make a lot more as a swing/position trader with average holding periods of 2 weeks- 3months, if you know what you are doing. Many of these successful traders are people you have never heard of and for good reason—they don’t offer any of their services to the public. Many of them trade for themselves, trade for proprietary desks at banks, or trade for hedge funds that you haven’t heard of. Some of them are old school legends – like Jesse Livermore, Gerald Loeb, William O’Neill, Michael Steinhart, George Soros – that are familiar to many. These traders all made returns over 30% annually with large sums of money, and some of the lesser known traders have averaged in excess of 60% over long time periods with a high degree of consistency. The interesting fact is that while these traders had vastly different styles, they all shared the same common traits that were obviously critical to their success.
1. Focus on Loss Control: Even though the judgment of each of these traders could be considered excellent, ALL of them were very quick to admit that they were wrong on a position and exited rapidly with minimal loss. They never rode losing investments down to the bottom while hoping for the market to let them off the hook. They also planned their exit points in advance and only risked an amount capital that they could afford to lose. This is what prevented them from going bust while sometimes using extreme amounts of leverage. In contrast some of the major trading disaster stories like Long Term Capital Management, Barings Bank, and most recently Amaranth were situations in which the key traders were unwilling to give in to the market and took positions and leverage in a size that did not permit any margin for error. If they were wrong they would be bankrupt, and that is exactly what happened.
2. Concentrated Positions: To make such extraordinary returns, these traders would focus on 5-10 positions at maximum in order to allocate their money to their very best ideas. This concept only works in conjunction with quick and tight loss control. Therefore, the lack of diversification is more than made up for by superior loss control. This way if you take a 10% or 20% position, if you are right and a stock goes up 100% you make 10% or 20% on your entire portfolio, if you are wrong and cut losses at 10%, you lose 1%-2% of your portfolio. So you can afford to be wrong 9 times and still make money if you last investment doubles. Therefore, it is not about being right 70% or even 50% of the time. All these traders focused on making far more when they were right then when they were wrong. They would never let one Nortel or JDS Uniphase ruin their portfolio. All of these traders would be out quickly, and busy looking for the next investment.
3. Active Rebalancing: To really make the system work even better, these traders would quickly reallocate capital to either the positions that they own that were performing the best, or to new and fresher positions. They would quickly eliminate stocks that fell to their loss limit OR were not moving up over a period of a few weeks. This helps to ensure that you expose yourself to enough opportunities that eventually you will find the investment that goes up 40%-100%. Indeed my own research confirms that active rebalancing enhances returns, which is contrary to the conventional notion that turnover hurts returns. The problem is that most people (and mutual funds) sell their winners and hold their losers, when they should be doing is riding their winners until they slow down and selling their losers quickly.
To many of you this probably sounds opposite to what you would want to do instinctively or to what you might have been told by your broker/investment advisor, or heard through the media. However, remember that the goal of mutual funds, and investment advisors is long-term investing, and using the same rules for trading will kill your performance over the long term.